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Same Answer, Different Future: Matched Predictions Do Not Imply Matched Belief Updating in Language Models
arXiv cs.LG — Machine Learning
Factual evidence
What the source reports
Research demonstrates that matching LLM probabilistic predictions do not guarantee identical belief updating when given new evidence.
Inspect the evidence
- Inclusion basis
- Enterprise AI
- Publisher and source type
- arXiv cs.LG — Machine Learning · RESEARCH
- Published by source
- 6 November 2026
- Collected by OneBench
- 7 Nov 2026, 02:02 UK
Stored source excerpt
arXiv:2611.07913v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Language models can produce similar probabilistic predictions after observing outcomes, reading summaries, receiving instructions, or undergoing activation interventions. Whether these…
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